Late in Thursday's "American Idol" wild-card show, Simon Cowell uttered the most honest paragraph in the franchise's history:
Explaining what the judges were looking for when picking the four wild-card contestants, Simon said, "We've gotta cast this next stage. We're not just going to put the boring singers through. We're going to put some personality through, as well."
"Idol" is not a singing competition and never has been. It's a reality show -- sometimes maddening, sometimes silly, usually compelling -- wedded to a popularity contest. Singing's a part of it, but it's not always the most crucial part. It's good for the franchise if the occasional winner turns out to be a popular commercial artist (Kelly, then Carrie, maybe now David Cook), but it hasn't hurt that Ruben and Taylor struggled post- "Idol," because their seasons were so memorable.
By returning to the semifinal format of the first few seasons, complete with three separate groups and a wild-card round, the producers and judges regained greater control over how their show is cast. Under the fourth- to seventh-season formats (where all the contestants performed every week, only a handful going home each time), it might not have been as easy for the producers to set the field the way they wanted. (Nick Mitchell, who performed in character as the campy "Normund Gentle," might have been just memorable enough to squeak through each week under that format, and then the show would have had a self-aware Sanjaya on its hands.) But based on air time in the audition and Hollywood rounds, placement in the semi-final episodes, and the judges' reactions, the top 13 is mainly made up of people that Team Idol wanted to see in the finals.
But it's hard to tell yet how good of a casting job they did. Thanks to the revamped format, we've only seen one full performance from most of the finalists. Who knows how they're going to handle the big stage, the weird theme nights and the overscheduled life of having to rehearse a song, do product-placed commercials, pretend to be impressed by the mentors, choreograph a group number for the results show, etc.?
It's telling that I feel more invested in the futures of the judges' four wildcard picks -- particularly grad student Anoop Desai, whose cover of Bobby Brown's "My Prerogative" was one of the few memorable performances of the season so far -- than I do in most of the people who got voted through, simply because I've seen more of them in front of an audience.
It's difficult to handicap how good the season can be, or who the favorites are, but I'll try. Last year at this time looked like it would be an "Idol" classic, with one of the deeper groups of finalists ever, but Cook was the only one who avoided cracking under the pressure and gave consistently great performances. And a year ago, I assumed David Archuleta was a lock to win, and he finished a distant second to Cook.
So keeping in mind that I'm a bad handicapper -- and that it's tough to factor in the theme nights, onscreen meltdowns, scandals, etc. -- here's a look at the field of 13, and how I'd rank their chances of winning, from best to worst:
1. Danny Gokey: The show has been pushing Gokey's backstory -- his wife died suddenly a month before he auditioned -- so much that it's starting to feel distasteful. (That's the show's fault, not Gokey's.) But the combination of sympathy, screentime, a nice-guy personality and a memorably bluesy voice makes him the early favorite. He seems like Archuleta with an added dozen years of maturity, but will he be as predictable?
2. Lil Rounds: One of three young moms in the finals, she got what seemed like excessive praise from the judges for a very shouty performance in Hollywood. Then she came back with a killer makeover and a subtle, professional take on Mary J. Blige's "Be Without You" and made that night's other singers seem like they were at a karaoke night.
3. Adam Lambert: Lambert, who was in the touring company of "Wicked," is probably this season's most polarizing finalist after his theatrical take on The Rolling Stones' "Satisfaction." But on "Idol," polarizing is a good thing because the people who hate you can't vote against you (until the top two), while the people who love you may become obsessed with you.
4. Alexis Grace: Sounded almost Kelly Clarkson-esque when she tackled Aretha's "I Never Loved a Man," a song that shouldn't sound as convincing as it did from a petite blonde. Like Lil, one of the few women the public actually voted through, and she seems well-equipped for different themes.
5. Anoop Desai: Enormously likable, and not just because it's fun to shout his first name. One of the few contestants who knows how to work the stage, he has a good enough voice and seems to have learned from his semis near-miss not to sing drippy ballads. "Idol" has never had a contestant quite like him. Could be a sleeper.
6. Megan Joy Corkrey: The judges are totally smitten with the pretty, quirky, tattooed woman with the distinctive, but not especially powerful voice. Anoop's polar opposite when it comes to moving on stage -- her spastic arm movements are like a cross between a Molly Shannon character, Elaine Benes dancing and a toddler -- but that's almost part of her charm. A classic case of personality probably being more important than talent.
7. Scott MacIntyre: The level of judge fawning over the blind pianist's semi-finals performance of "Mandolin Rain" -- Kara told him, "You move mountains on that stage." -- came across as patronizing praise of a middling performance, as if Scott needed to be graded on a curve for his disability. At the same time, Scott wouldn't be the first finalist to have a long run fueled by sentimental reasons (see also singing Marine Josh Gracin in season two), and he also may get a boost once he's able to perform behind his trusty piano when instruments are allowed again.
8. Matt Giraud: Like fellow wildcarder Anoop, he's probably learned his lesson after his heinous Coldplay cover a few weeks ago and will stay in his blues box from now on. Another pianist who should benefit from the return of instruments.
9. & 10. Jasmine Murray & Allison Iraheta: Someone needs to draw the "she's just like me!" votes from the teen and 'tween girls who are the show's biggest voting bloc, and if it's not youthful-looking, 21-year-old mom Alexis, it'll be one of the two actual teens. Allison got voted through, while Jasmine was a wildcard, but Allison did it by singing "Alone" by Heart, whose catalog has been historically so kind to "Idol" contestants that anyone who advances with one of their songs has to be looked at like a ballplayer who just had his corked bat taken away.
11. Michael Sarver: Another guy making it through largely on backstory -- he's an oil-rig roughneck trying to provide for his family -- Sarver doesn't seem like he'd adapt well to the themes, and I can envision a few weeks of "You're a nice guy, but ..." from Simon, then the boot.
12. Jorge Nunez: Made it through singing another money-in-the-bank "Idol" song, "Don't Let the Sun Go Down On Me," and seems unremarkable.
13. Kris Allen: On the one hand, it's commendable -- and maybe a testament to his non-threatening good looks -- that he was voted through a few weeks ago with virtually no previous airtime, and after a bland take on Michael Jackson's "Man in the Mirror," at that. On the other, Kris who? He still has a substantial personality deficit to overcome compared to the other 12 and could be forgotten quickly.
